International

IIE DIGITAL DESK ; Israel: Which way will Israeli politics turn in the coming days? Nearly 24 hours after vote counting began, the country’s political future remains uncertain. With around 91 per cent of the votes counted, it is still unclear whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be able to retain power or whether opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot will succeed in forming the next government. Political analysts believe that Israel is now effectively at the mercy of Ra’am, the Arab political party whose support could determine who ultimately takes control of the country.

The importance of Ra’am in Israel’s political calculations has become increasingly apparent as the election results continue to unfold. Officially known as the United Arab List, Ra’am is an Islamist-oriented Arab political party that represents the interests of Israel’s Arab community. According to the latest figures cited in the results, Ra’am is set to win eight seats in the 120-member Knesset. Another Arab political grouping, the Joint List, is projected to secure 11 seats. Together, the Arab parties could command 19 seats, potentially placing them in the position of kingmakers in the formation of the next government.

To form a government in Israel, a party or coalition needs the support of at least 61 members in the 120-seat Knesset. However, neither Netanyahu’s alliance nor the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot appears to have reached the required majority. With approximately 91 per cent of the votes counted, Netanyahu’s coalition is reportedly leading in 53 seats, while Eisenkot’s bloc is projected to secure around 50. The remaining numbers could prove decisive in determining the final balance of power.

In such a closely contested political landscape, the support of Ra’am and the Joint List could make all the difference. Whichever side manages to secure the backing of these Arab parties may be better positioned to cross the majority threshold and form a government. This has placed Ra’am at the centre of negotiations and intensified speculation about possible alliances and political compromises.

Reports suggest that Ra’am has already prepared a list of demands that it may present in exchange for supporting a coalition government. The party is expected to use its potential leverage to seek commitments on issues affecting Arab citizens and their communities. Although the precise terms of any possible agreement remain unclear, the party’s position could give it considerable influence over the next government’s priorities.

Eisenkot’s political journey has also become a significant part of the current debate. He entered politics around four years ago and was previously associated with Netanyahu’s political camp. Before entering electoral politics, Eisenkot served for many years as the chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces. Differences with Netanyahu eventually led him to part ways with the prime minister and move towards the opposition.

The possibility of Arab parties playing a decisive role in government formation has added another dimension to the political uncertainty. Historically, Arab parties have faced significant barriers to joining governing coalitions in Israel. However, the current arithmetic could create circumstances in which their support becomes difficult for either major bloc to ignore.

Some analysts believe that Arab parties may prefer to work with Eisenkot if doing so offers a realistic opportunity to remove Netanyahu from power. Others argue that Netanyahu could attempt to overcome past political rivalries and explore an arrangement with Eisenkot if his own coalition fails to secure a majority. Both possibilities remain speculative, and much will depend on the final seat count, the parties’ negotiating positions and the conditions attached to any agreement.

For Netanyahu, the challenge is to find a path to the 61-seat majority needed to remain in office. For Eisenkot, the opportunity lies in bringing together enough political forces to create an alternative government. Neither side can afford to underestimate the influence of the Arab parties, whose seats could become decisive in the final negotiations.

As Israel waits for a clearer electoral picture, the uncertainty has left political observers watching every development closely. The outcome will depend not only on the final results but also on the willingness of rival parties to negotiate and compromise. With neither major camp currently appearing to command a clear majority, Ra’am and the Joint List could emerge as the decisive forces in determining Israel’s political future.

For now, Israel is truly at the mercy of Ra’am. Whether Netanyahu manages to hold on to power or Eisenkot succeeds in building an alternative government may ultimately depend on which side can win the crucial support of the Arab parties.